These are scenarios for Singapore. The scenarios are told from the perspective of the year 2020.
A Home Divided
Before 2010, Singapore had enjoyed a period of economic growth, generated through the adept creation and application of knowledge. Our ability to continue to attract foreign talent and the presence of an able and educated workforce proved to be a competitive advantage. With strong regional growth, we had been able to transform ourselves into a knowledge-based economy. But economic success stratified society, resulting in a widening gulf between the rich and the poor, between the races, between educated and less educated Singaporeans. Whilst economic prosperity continued, these cracks in society were papered over.
But around 2010, when the regional economy faltered, Singapore's economy was badly hit. Social cohesion became an acute problem. Singaporeans felt increasingly insecure about their future, shattering an earlier sense of complacency. Although an economic recovery has come about by 2020 because of our strong economic fundamentals, the social divide that has developed over issues of race, language, religion, nationality and income will take a far longer time to heal.
There is no sense of cohesion, no sense that we are fellow countrymen, no sense that we are one united people. Singapore is a 'Home Divided'.
Hotel Singapore
In 2020, the Pacific Century is well underway. It is a prosperous global society, but also an intensely competitive one, a world where capital and talent are increasingly mobile. However, Singapore is an exception to this general trend. By 2020, Singapore has become a slow growing economy.
Structural problems such as high business costs and the lack of skilled manpower proved to be Singapore's undoing. The best and brightest Singaporeans, who lack strong ties to the country, have left for greener pastures. We lose talent to countries experiencing dynamic growth, or offering a better quality of life.
This loss of committed local and foreign talent has been both cause and effect in our inability to break through to a knowledge-based economy. By 2020, it is clear that we have failed to secure a sustainable competitive advantage amidst the game of economic catch-up. Social tensions rise as unemployment and stagnating wages set in. Singapore society, as a whole, is fragmented and weak.
Singaporeans come and go without any sense that Singapore is Home. They stay when the going is good and go elsewhere when times get tough. This is Hotel Singapore.
Conclusion
It is not expected that either of these two scenarios will come true in their entirety. Rather the real world is more likely to be a combination of scenarios, with elements from each occurring at the same time. For example, it is plausible that Singaporeans could leave for greener pastures even when the world economy is not doing well, as there will always be 'pockets of excellence' where jobs are available for talented individuals.
The point is not whether these scenarios come true or not. In fact, it is precisely because the future is not entirely predetermined that there is room for us to shape our own destiny. What is important is that the scenarios help us to look ever outward and ever forward, to think about how we need to change and help us understand better what we can change. By understanding the key challenges, we generate new strategies to ameliorate the negatives, enhance the positives, pre-empt difficult situations and respond quickly to opportunities.
The basics of life in Singapore remain. We are where we are in South East Asia. We are many races, many religions, many languages, yet determined to be one. No one owes us a living. No one else is responsible for our security. To be tough minded is to survive. To be willing to try is to succeed. We are a small country, but we have big dreams. It is when we work together to anticipate change, with courage and commitment, that we can be confident about the continued success, security and survival of Singapore.
In order to meet the challenges posed by the scenarios and realise our vision for Singapore, it is useful to consider what should be done in terms of 3 'P's- the Public Sector, the Private Sector and the People Sector. The Public Sector works to create conditions for the Private Sector to survive and prosper and to provide health, education other social services to the general public. The Private Sector concentrates on generating economic wealth and prosperity for Singapore. The People Sector involves building ties between people and fostering a sense of belonging among Singaporeans through active participation in community and national life.
While a strong Public Sector and a vibrant Private Sector will remain essential for continued peace and prosperity, the 1997 National Scenarios highlight the importance of building the 'People Sector', to strengthen our sense of being one people and to build the instinct that Singapore is best home for us and our best hope for the future. |
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