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The scenarios cover the period 1999 to 2004. Although the timeframe of 5 years is relatively short, many of the short-term issues explored have long-term implications.
Asia Reborn
The global economy is strong and healthy, bolstered by a robust US economy and calm financial markets. Against this positive outlook, optimism in globalisation and economic liberalisation is restored. Asian economies persevere in their reforms and investor confidence returns.
Singapore benefits initially from the global upturn, but faces strong global and regional competition. While we manage to sustain moderate growth, our competitiveness is being eroded and we face the danger of losing our economic niche. Dissatisfaction spreads among Singaporeans when there is no resumption of high growth, especially when compared against a prosperous global economy.
Region in Transition
The global economy is benign, but somewhat weaker than in the Asia Reborn scenario.
Both the US and China manage to sustain good economic growth. Against this benign environment, Asian countries make uneven progress in the imple-mentation of difficult economic reforms. Taiwan, South Korea and China lead the region out of the economic crisis, whereas economies which are laden with debt overhang and a patchy record of implementing reforms, lag behind. They are subject to occasional attacks on their currencies.
Against an unstable regional environment, Singapore's economy splits between region-dependent sectors which languish and international knowledge-based sectors which latch onto growth in the OECD countries. Singapore experiences structural unemployment in the declining sectors and "jobless growth" in the new knowledge sectors which require foreign talent. The dual structure of the economy results in a widening income gap.
Globalisation in Crisis
In the absence of substantive progress in reforming the international financial system, renewed volatility in financial markets hits the Asian economies that are still in the process of rehabilitating their economies. A major correction in the US stock market exacerbates global volatility. The view that the risks of globalisation outweigh the benefits starts to gain currency. The international trading regime is also in danger as protectionist pressures build around the world.
As a small open economy, Singapore suffers disproportionately from the stagnation in the world economy and the break-up of the international trading regime. As the US and Europe look towards closed regional trading arrangements, new investments are put in Latin America and Eastern Europe. In the face of adversity, Singaporeans rally together.
Vision for Singapore
It is not expected that any of these scenarios will come true in their entirety. The real world is more likely to be a combination of all scenarios, with elements from each occurring at the same time. The point is not whether the scenarios come true or not. What is most important is that by understanding the key challenges for the future, we can generate strategies that will enable us to surmount the challenges and seize the opportunities.
We have a vision of Singapore in the 21st century. Singapore 21 will be a cohesive, vibrant and prosperous country, a land of opportunity where every Singaporean matters, a cosmopolitan centre for learning, science and the arts, and a gracious society where we are a people who make the difference. This is a vision of Singapore, our best home. With courage, commitment and responsible government, we can achieve this vision. But we must also be able to anticipate changes and future challenges. This is how scenarios can help us achieve our vision for Singapore and make ours the best home. |
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