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Overview
Scenarios are plausible and challenging stories about the future. They are based on plausible permutations of key trends or driving forces which have significant impact in shaping geopolitics, economics and society. Scenarios provide the context by which robust strategies for the future can be drawn up.
The 2005 National Scenarios comprise three scenarios with a timeframe of 15 years (2005-2020).
Focal Concern
The focal concern for the 2005 National Scenarios is:
| What will the economic, social, security and governance challenges be for Singapore in 2020? |
| a. |
How will Singapore make a living? |
| b. |
Who will want to live in Singapore? |
| c. |
What will life be like in Singapore? |
| d. |
What will make a person want to stay/be a Singaporean? | |
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Scenario 1: Global Society
Globalisation garners widespread support, and the region is stable. Countries operate in a rules-based world and the Middle East settles into a fragile peace as moderate influences prevail. ASEAN is united and outward-looking. The environment appears sure and steady as Singapore sustains economic growth. But the fierce competition for hub status is growing, while structural unemployment and an ageing population remain challenges. We thrive on innovation and diversity in people, ideas, and values, and this is accompanied by a new equilibrium across the public, private and people sectors. As in other global societies, we are under pressure to implement social policies that are becoming the international norm, such as unemployment benefits, minimum wage and health benefits. There is an uneasy accommodation between various interest groups, individual freedoms, and the government. Pressure is brought to bear on issues such as workers’ rights, elders’ rights and gay rights. There are also many competing pulls on the Singaporean identity. Talented Singaporeans see themselves as citizens of the world. Singapore remains attractive to immigrants, and this moderates population ageing although citizenship take-up and birth rates remain low. But in the midst of relative calm and prosperity, Singaporeans are jolted by an isolated terrorist attack in an anti-globalist backlash. |
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Scenario 2: Roller Coaster
The Singapore economy is volatile amidst an uncertain global environment and regional divides. Islamic extremism continues to be exacerbated by clashes between militant Islam and the West. Terrorist threats loom across the world. Crises and conflicts dampen growth opportunities. Strategic competition between US and China for influence in the region heightens. However, both find common ground in combating terrorist threats to global stability. ASEAN is divided as individual countries align themselves with the different major powers. Fundamentalist Islamic forces pose an ever-greater challenge to cohesion.
Singaporeans unite as terrorism strikes at home. Communities are strong, although new tensions between groups emerge. Singaporeans stay vigilant and are wary of newcomers in an increasingly conservative society. As unemployment rates fluctuate, there are large swings in the numbers of foreigners living and working in Singapore with attendant effects on the economy. Local talent leaves for better opportunities abroad. The population ages rapidly. |
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Scenario 3: Asian Embrace
With the rise of China and India, Singaporeans have to navigate a new business and geopolitical landscape. China and India compete for strategic influence as the US becomes less engaged in the region. Islamic extremism is held in check, but Islam becomes increasingly entrenched in the political discourse of Indonesia and Malaysia. Globally, there is a loss of faith in the UN. Blocs form and regionalism takes hold. ASEAN reaches a regional consensus which is inward-looking. In the embrace of an ascendant Asia, some Singaporeans succeed in harnessing the new growth engines. Asian talent keeps the Singapore economy competitive. But new societal divides emerge, and competing values come to the fore. Tensions escalate between the young and old, rich and poor, locals and foreigners, and employers and workers. Crime and corruption increase. Diversity is not harnessed well, and a fractious society results. Our population ages as we continue to see low birth rates, although this is somewhat ameliorated by immigration flows. | |
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